Signals and Noise
I’ve been getting signs. It’s really starting to make me wonder if someone is trying to tell me something. Really loudly. I think that getting sick was a big ass one that made me realize I needed to take care of myself a whole lot more than I was. But these other ones, like I said, someone’s trying to tell me something loudly. Like JESSICA! Much like the Bill Cosby “Noah” skit we used to listen to on the way to Florida--it was my favorite. And now, 13 years later, I think I’m Noah.
You see Noah was in his rec. room. Sewing away, he was making a few things for the home there. He was a good carpenter
Whoompa, whoompa, whoompa, whoompa
Noah!
Somebody call?
Whoompa, whoompa, whoompa
Noah!
Who is that?
It's the Lord, Noah
Right!
Where are ja?
What you want? I've been good.
I want you to build an Ark
Right!
What’s an Ark?
Get some wood build it
300 cubits by 80 cubits by 40 cubits
Right!
It started a while ago…with Strbk#1 telling me how much he loved California. It sounds great to me. Then, it was my advisor…”Jess where do you see yourself?” “Um, east of the Mississippi and south of the Mason-Dixon.” “What about the West Coast?” “Hah! No.” “Jess you should think about it and keep your options open.” Then it was Sb#1 asking me on Friday where I was going to go after I finished school here. “I dunno…wherever I get a job.” “California is really nice. Los Angeles and San Francisco are great.” Then Sunday nite, Strbk#1’s sister and I are like best-friends forevah. She lives in San Fran. Ha. She comes up with all these super cute facts about the place…the bakery where sourdough bread was born, the fabulous clam chowder, the laid-back and liberal nature, the only moving national historical treasure in the US. “You really need to visit. I think you’d like it. You can even stay with me!”
And then there’s this. My paradigm shifting started back in the MIA with someone asking me, “Did you ever consider that this move isn’t about your advisor picking up and leaving for his job, but that he’s moving because YOU are meant to be there?’ WHOA. And “I think you’re going to meet The One out there.” Ha. El Paso. Right. Brooke and I were talking about our single lives at dinner the other night and she says, “I think you’re gonna find The One out here in ELP and wouldn’t that just be funny.” Um (nervously) ha heard that one before. That night I head over while my Strbk#1 is recording a song…in which the main message in the chorus is “you were meant to be here from the beginning.”
Who is this really? What's going on?
How come you want me to do all these weird things?
I'm going to destroy the world
Right!
Am I on Candid Camera?
I know those people who believe in “signs from God” or “everything happens for a reason” or whatever popular phrase you want to give it. I’m too much of an agnostic to buy into that fully…but I gotta say, statistically speaking these could be just mere coincidences…but shit. This is just too much clustered too tightly together for me. I’m marrying someone in El Paso and moving to California. Buy your plane tickets now.
Really though. In statistics we talk about signal detection theory. Here’s an example: You present a “beep” (signal) or nothing at all (noise) to a participant. On 200 trials, ½ have the signal present, the other half have nothing. A participant can make one of four responses on each trial:
Hit: said there was a signal when there was a signal
Miss: said there was no signal when there was a signal
False Alarm: said there was a signal when there was no signal
Correct Rejection: said no signal when there was no signal
You can then take those, and by some fancy mathematics, come up with A’ and Beta. A’ is a measure of discrimination accuracy, so how well can you discriminate the signal from the noise. Beta is a measure of response criterion, so do you have a bias to say yes or to say no.
Well, when is this stuff a signal and when is it just noise? And when do I decide if information is discriminating? I don’t have an answer, but let me tell you, I set a pretty conservative response criterion and I’m not likely to say yes. But everything has me a-thinkin.
I tell you I've had enough of this stuff! I tell you what I'm gonna do--I'm letting all these animals out! And I'm gonna burn down this Ark! And I'm going to Florida somewhere
'Cause you haven't done nothin'. I'm sick and tired of all this mess. You foolin' around
And you haven't done nothing!
And you got it rainin'. It's not a shower is it? Ok Lord me and you right
'Cause I knew it all the time.
You see Noah was in his rec. room. Sewing away, he was making a few things for the home there. He was a good carpenter
Whoompa, whoompa, whoompa, whoompa
Noah!
Somebody call?
Whoompa, whoompa, whoompa
Noah!
Who is that?
It's the Lord, Noah
Right!
Where are ja?
What you want? I've been good.
I want you to build an Ark
Right!
What’s an Ark?
Get some wood build it
300 cubits by 80 cubits by 40 cubits
Right!
It started a while ago…with Strbk#1 telling me how much he loved California. It sounds great to me. Then, it was my advisor…”Jess where do you see yourself?” “Um, east of the Mississippi and south of the Mason-Dixon.” “What about the West Coast?” “Hah! No.” “Jess you should think about it and keep your options open.” Then it was Sb#1 asking me on Friday where I was going to go after I finished school here. “I dunno…wherever I get a job.” “California is really nice. Los Angeles and San Francisco are great.” Then Sunday nite, Strbk#1’s sister and I are like best-friends forevah. She lives in San Fran. Ha. She comes up with all these super cute facts about the place…the bakery where sourdough bread was born, the fabulous clam chowder, the laid-back and liberal nature, the only moving national historical treasure in the US. “You really need to visit. I think you’d like it. You can even stay with me!”
And then there’s this. My paradigm shifting started back in the MIA with someone asking me, “Did you ever consider that this move isn’t about your advisor picking up and leaving for his job, but that he’s moving because YOU are meant to be there?’ WHOA. And “I think you’re going to meet The One out there.” Ha. El Paso. Right. Brooke and I were talking about our single lives at dinner the other night and she says, “I think you’re gonna find The One out here in ELP and wouldn’t that just be funny.” Um (nervously) ha heard that one before. That night I head over while my Strbk#1 is recording a song…in which the main message in the chorus is “you were meant to be here from the beginning.”
Who is this really? What's going on?
How come you want me to do all these weird things?
I'm going to destroy the world
Right!
Am I on Candid Camera?
I know those people who believe in “signs from God” or “everything happens for a reason” or whatever popular phrase you want to give it. I’m too much of an agnostic to buy into that fully…but I gotta say, statistically speaking these could be just mere coincidences…but shit. This is just too much clustered too tightly together for me. I’m marrying someone in El Paso and moving to California. Buy your plane tickets now.
Really though. In statistics we talk about signal detection theory. Here’s an example: You present a “beep” (signal) or nothing at all (noise) to a participant. On 200 trials, ½ have the signal present, the other half have nothing. A participant can make one of four responses on each trial:
Hit: said there was a signal when there was a signal
Miss: said there was no signal when there was a signal
False Alarm: said there was a signal when there was no signal
Correct Rejection: said no signal when there was no signal
You can then take those, and by some fancy mathematics, come up with A’ and Beta. A’ is a measure of discrimination accuracy, so how well can you discriminate the signal from the noise. Beta is a measure of response criterion, so do you have a bias to say yes or to say no.
Well, when is this stuff a signal and when is it just noise? And when do I decide if information is discriminating? I don’t have an answer, but let me tell you, I set a pretty conservative response criterion and I’m not likely to say yes. But everything has me a-thinkin.
I tell you I've had enough of this stuff! I tell you what I'm gonna do--I'm letting all these animals out! And I'm gonna burn down this Ark! And I'm going to Florida somewhere
'Cause you haven't done nothin'. I'm sick and tired of all this mess. You foolin' around
And you haven't done nothing!
And you got it rainin'. It's not a shower is it? Ok Lord me and you right
'Cause I knew it all the time.
posted by Cat at 11:27 PM
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